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Units outperform houses

 Units outperform Houses Historically, houses have enjoyed a much more rapid appreciation in value than the growth recorded by units. There are a number of reasons for this more rapid level of growth: greater demand for houses, diminishing availability of development land, higher quality of stock and design available for houses rather than units and the greater Australian dream to own a house rather than a unit, among a number of other reasons.

Despite these factors, over the last five years units have recorded average annual value growth of 7.4% compared to 7.1% for houses. However, the results suggest that the superior performance of units compared to houses is quite a new phenomenon as over the last 10 years the average annual value growth of houses (9.9%) has well and truly outperformed units (8.0%).

The improvement in the capital growth performance of units in recent times is most likely due to affordability issues. Based on current capital city median prices, unit prices are recorded at $420,000 compared to houses at $495,000. Accordingly, units offer a much more affordable alternative housing option than houses.

Many unit developments, particularly newer units, are also in strategic locations and are where a large proportion of the market aspires to live but cannot afford to buy a detached home. In many cases, apartments provide a viable and relatively affordable option to buy into these markets. A good example of this is Bellevue Hill in Sydney. Bellevue Hill is one of the country’s most expensive housing markets with a median house price of $3.85 million, unit prices in the suburb are recorded at $620,000, -84% more affordable than a house.

The inner city and well established residential areas enjoy high demand for units because in most instances they are: well catered to by local amenity including shops and restaurants, well located close to working nodes and are serviced by existing public transport amenity which is often not available in outer suburbs of the capital cities.

Over the 12 months to June 2010, unit values have increased by 11.4% compared to growth of 10.2% for houses. On a month-to-month basis, annual value growth for units has been outstripping that of houses fairly consistently since April 2008.

unit-outperform-1

Throughout the individual capital city markets, the growth in the value of units has outperformed houses within Sydney, Brisbane, Perth and Darwin over the last 12 months.

Throughout the capital city markets Hobart has the most affordable units with a median price of $254,250 and Sydney the most expensive with a median of $450,000.

When the differential between median house prices and unit prices is analysed you gain a greater insight into the performance of the market.

unit-outperform-2

Darwin has the greatest differential between house and unit prices at $142,176 and the smallest differential is recorded in Adelaide ($67,252). Sydney, Brisbane and Darwin each recorded a differential in median price of at least $90,000 and these three cities each recorded a greater level of annual value growth for units rather than houses over the last 12 months. Perth also recorded a superior performance for units over the last year however, the price differential in that city is $75,000.

Although the popularity of units is increasing, since the onset of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) many developers have found it much more difficult to obtain finance for higher density developments. This is due to the fact that the banks are becoming more risk adverse and the fact that a number of high profile higher density projects have either been cancelled or delayed. The latest building approvals data showed that over the year to June 2010 the number of approvals for private sector units has rebounded very strongly (57.7%) however, the monthly volume of approvals is still well below levels consistently recorded prior to the onset of the GFC, highlighting that finance for higher density product is difficult to obtain.

It’s undoubted that units have significant appeal for price sensitive purchasers due to the fact they can own in a popular location at a far lesser price compared with a detached home. For investors, units are appealing because in most instances the rental yields are much higher than they are for houses. Across the capital cities, the average gross rental yield for a unit is currently recorded at 4.8% and for houses yields are recorded at 4.0%. The superior rental return achieved by units can be attributed to the fact that units are typically located in areas that have high demand: close to major transport networks, employment nodes or retail centres.

Tim Lawless is the Director of Property Research at RP Data.

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Last 12 months saw Oz property prices soar by almost 20%

22-2 Residential property prices in major Australian cities have increased by almost 20% in the last 12 months, according to the latest figures to be released.  
The data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows average quarterly growth to June of 3.1% and an annual increase of 18.4%.

The data shows growth of almost double that of the private sector RP Data/Rismark index released last week which showed national city dwelling values up 10.5% in the same period.
In Melbourne house prices increased more than 24% in the last year while in Sydney they rose 21%, according to the ABC figures.

Canberra saw a 19.6% price increase, Darwin 14.6%, Perth 13%, Adelaide 11.l6%, Hobart 10.8% and Brisbane 8.5%.

The data reveals that the rate of growth in capital cities peaked at 5.5% in the December quarter last year, after rising from negative territory during the economic downturn, and is now steadily falling.

In the second quarter of the year prices increases slowed considerably. In Sydney they increased by 4.9%, by 3.6% in Melbourne and by 3.2% in Adelaide.  Darwin saw a 2.8% increase, Canberra was up 2.1%, Perth 0.4%, Brisbane 0.3% and Hobart 0.1%.

Last week’s RP Data index showed average house prices had fallen slightly after 17 months of consecutive gains, as economists agreed the market was at a turning point. In a note ANZ economists said while growth was expected to slow further this year, prices would be supported by the underlying housing shortage and a buoyant outlook for the Australian economy.

It comes as analysts warn that Australia is facing a housing crisis and that the national shortfall of 190,000 dwellings will widen to 466,000 by 2020, amid expectations of a rapidly growing population.

Developers claim that a shortage of land and a lengthy planning process is hampering construction. HIA chief economist Harvey Dale said it takes an average of seven to eight years for a greenfield site to reach completion, an unnecessarily long period that pushes up costs and reduces supply.

‘At the end of the day, the lack of adequate, affordable land supply is at the heart of the problem. The number of processes a development must go through is higher now than was the case 10 years ago. We are regressing rather than progressing in terms of the bureaucracy involved in building a new home,’ he said.

Story source www.propertywire.com

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Home prices drop after 17 months of gains

home-price-chart National city home prices fell for the first time in 18 months in June, as rising interest rates sent auction clearance rates lower.

Median national home prices fell by 0.8 per cent in June, in raw terms, from a 0.6 per cent increase in May, according to RP Data-Rismark figures. It was the largest monthly fall in home prices since April 2008, shaving the median national dwelling price by $3000 for the month to $465,000.
”As mortgage rates have normalised, participants in the housing market have cut their house price growth expectations, which explains the current change in conditions,” Rismark International managing director Christopher Joye said in a statement.

Official interest rates have risen six times since October to 4.5 per cent, lifting the average cost of mortgages by $300 a month. Since February, auction clearance rates – a key reading on the buoyancy of the market – have fallen from 80 per cent to around 60 per cent in Melbourne and Sydney.

While the RP-Data figures point to a retreat in house prices, a survey out yesterday indicated market players anticipate a slowing growth in house price gains in the coming year. Real estate agents, developers and other residential industry tip only 1.4 per cent of price growth over the next year, down from 5.4 per cent growth expected three months earlier, according to the National Australia Bank June quarter property survey.

Sydney and Melbourne
In the three months to June, Australian home values were basically flat, rising 0.1 per cent seasonally adjusted, RP Data-Rismark said.
For the same period, home prices in Sydney rose 0.5 per cent and by 0.2 per cent in Melbourne. Prices in Brisbane fell 1.3 per cent, and by 2.5 per cent in Perth. RP Data doesn’t release June-only figures on city price movements.

Canberra home prices fell 0.8 per cent, while in Darwin they fell 0.1 per cent.
Home prices outside capital cities rose by 0.3 per cent in June, after falling 0.9 per cent in May.
”It’s sobering to remember here that we have had 17 consecutive monthly increases in Australian capital city home values,” said Mr Joye.
”If the sharemarket rose for 17 months straight and then tapered, people would not think twice. It might be wise to apply the same logic to our housing market,” he said.
Despite the slowdown, national city home prices have risen 10.5 per cent over the year to June.

Quarterly drop
Prices fell the most in the June quarter for the top fifth of homes, RP Data-Rismark said.
”It’s likely that the top end has been adversely affected by the volatile share market and the uncertainty swirling around Europe and North America,” said RP Data national research director Tim Lawless.

”RP Data-Rismark’s results for the most expensive 20 per cent of suburbs show a real shift in the market dynamic," said Mr Lawless. "Through most of 2009 and the first quarter of 2010 it was the premium markets that experienced the strongest capital growth."
"In recent months, the middle 60 per cent of suburbs have outperformed," he said.

"Another variable impacting sentiment may be the federal election, with some people placing their purchase or sale plans on hold subject to seeing the full set of policy positions,” he said.
The trend of slowing or falling home prices was picked up in Australian Property Monitors quarterly data, released yesterday, which showed the median national house price rose 2.4 per cent in the June quarter, slowing from a 3.8 per cent rise in the March quarter.

However, Mr Lawless downplayed fears that Australia faced a housing bubble ready to pop.
”As the RBA has independently confirmed, arguments in favour of house price `bubbles’ remain, in my opinion, overstated,” Mr Lawless said.

”If we saw blow-outs in average time on market, re-listings, and vendor discounting, it would set off a few alarm bells," Mr Lawless said. "This, however, is not currently the case.”
The Reserve Bank will hold its monthly board meeting next week, with investors and economists expecting no change, following weaker-than-expected quarterly inflation this week.

Story by Chris Zappone www.smh.com.au

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Liveable House Design

bathroom photo real estate Homes will be where the easy access is, says new building code to promote mobility.

A minimalist step-free shower; a corridor wide enough for a sofa; and a front entry you don’t have to wrestle the pram up.

These features are part of a voluntary building code to be released today by the Parliamentary Secretary for Disabilities, Bill Shorten. The code would improve a home’s value and also make life easier for Australians with mobility issues, advocates said.

An ageing population of baby boomers who dislike stairs and young parents wanting better safety for toddlers are key targets for the Liveable Housing Design, the consumer-facing brand of the code developed with the property industry.

The national convener of the advocacy group Australian Network for Universal Housing Design, Amelia Starr, said the fashionable step-free shower was already standard in homemaker magazines, while wider corridors were useful to anyone moving furniture.

US research showed 90 per cent of newly built homes would at some point have someone with a mobility issue residing there. Too many Australian homes were unable to adapt to a family’s evolving needs, let alone wheelchair use, Ms Starr said.

”We hope people will say I want that brand in my home because then it can be sold off to the widest range of people possible,” she said.

The Property Council of Australia chief executive, Peter Verwer, said: ”It makes good sense to design homes so they evolve with their users. It works as well for mums to be as it does for senior Australians.”

The new standards grew from several meetings between Mr Shorten and Therese Rein with industry groups including the Master Builders, Australian Institute of Architects, the Property Council and the Herald journalist Cynthia Banham. The last meeting was held two days before Kevin Rudd stepped down as prime minister.

The code will be launched today by Mr Shorten at a Penrith housing development that already adopts its features.

The Master Builders chief executive, Wilhelm Harnisch, said: ”Improving the safety of kitchens and other areas means people can stay longer in the home instead of going to an aged care facility.”

Story by Kirsty Needham www.smh.com.au

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The Most Unaffordable Real Estate Markets

Gold-Coast-300x225 In the latest Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey, there’s little surprise or change in the most unaffordable markets.

Once again, Australia is the most over-priced, and thus least affordable country in the study, with five of the top six cities surveyed also being Australian.

The survey, which covers 272 markets in Australia, Canada, Ireland, New Zealand, the United Kingdom and the United States, is now in its 6th year, and determines affordability by the “Median Multiple”, which is quite simply the median house price divided by gross annual median household income.

LEAST UNAFFORDABLE
There were 61 severely unaffordable markets this year, down from 64 found in the previous survey. The least affordable markets were concentrated in Australia (22) the United Kingdom (19) and the United States (11).

As for cities, the top six are Vancouver being the least affordable, followed by Sydney, Sunshine Coast, Darwin, Gold Coast and Honolulu.

click the tables to enlarge

MOST AFFORDABLE
There were 103 affordable markets, 98 located in the United States and 5 located in Canada.

6th Annual Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey - read here

The results of this latest edition are very much in line with a recent and broader index compiled by The Economist which showed Australia to be in excess of 50 times over-priced/valued.

Story from http://marquetteturner.com/

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Average Aussies – where can they afford to purchase?

RHRVWB4wKkSKbV6_PKVgxA_couple_dream_home Believe it or not, whilst housing affordability remains a huge issue in Australia, there are still options for the price sensitive purchaser. It’s no surprise they just need to target areas further away from the CBD.

Housing finance data released last week showed that across the country non first time buyers in New South Wales had the greatest average loan size at $315,400 and Tasmanian’s were taking out the smallest average loans at $194,000.  It is extremely rare that anyone would be receiving a 100% loan so for the purposes of the following analysis we have assumed that borrowers have a 10% deposit, therefore they are borrowing 90% of the total value of the loan.  Based on this assumption we can determine their borrowing power which indicates how much the purchaser could have potentially purchased a property for.

On average, purchasers in New South Wales demonstrated the greatest buying power, spending on average $350,444 and Tasmania purchasers had the least amount of buying power at $216,556.  This outcome is to be expected and reflects the characteristics of these markets with New South Wales having the most expensive property market and Tasmania the most affordable.

Looking at capital cities we are all aware that affordability is an issue however it is interesting to note that across all house sales within capital cities, Sydney, the nation’s most expensive housing market, actually had the greatest proportion of total sales priced below the determined level of borrowing power.  21.8% of all Sydney house sales were priced below $350,444.  Obviously most of these are situated in the outer more affordable areas of the city however, it shows that affordable property is still available.  The next best performer was Canberra where 15.3% of house sales were priced below $301,556.

Affordable property is much harder to come by in Perth.  Only 11.8% of all Perth house sales during the last 12 months were at prices below $324,444.  As is the case in most instances the areas where these properties are available are generally the outer more affordable regions of the city.

The Campbelltown Local Government Area (LGA) on the southern outskirt of Sydney has a current median house price of $317,500 which is well below the average borrowing power for the city.  As a result, Campbelltown has had the greatest proportion of affordable sales of any capital city council area in the country over the last year.  71.1% of Campbelltown’s house sales were priced below $350,444 during the last year.

Across the list of LGA’s / Districts detailed, Sydney LGA’s led the way providing nine of the 20 capital city LGA’s with the greatest proportion of sales being affordable for non first time buyers.  All of the Sydney LGA’s detailed are situated some way from the CBD area and all have a median price below $400,000.

Darwin LGA’s were the only regions which had no representation on the list however, Brisbane, Adelaide and Canberra each had only one LGA.

The result of the analysis shows just how important it is to dig a little deeper with data.  The housing finance numbers show us how much people are borrowing and with a few assumptions we can determine where these buyers can afford to live.

Clearly if you are an average income earner and want to own a house it’s pretty unlikely you are going to be able to live in the blue chip inner city suburbs (although there are some examples, very few, within these areas).  If you are an average income earner looking to buy property, more than ever location is becoming the most important attribute.  The best prospects for growth in property value and the most desirable locations in which to live are those suburbs which enjoy proximity to: public transport, retail and social amenity, schools, working nodes, health care, public open spaces and major roads.

Whilst the locations where the affordable properties tend to be located may not have all of these attributes certainly many of them have a number of the desirable features and purchasing in those areas will likely make for a more enjoyable place to live as well as greater potential for future price growth.

Story by JoeyJ realestate.com.au

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Consumer confidence falls during May

The Westpac-Melbourne Institute’s Consumer Sentiment Index has indicated a 7.0% fall in consumer confidence during May.

The Index now sits at 108.0 points suggesting that consumers have become less confident in domestic economic conditions over the last month. This is likely to be the result of a volatile share market, economic instability in Europe and higher interest rates. Whilst this month’s result is the weakest since June 2009, the Index remains well above 100 points which is the point where optimists and pessimists are evenly balanced.

A subset of the Index, the `Time to Buy a Dwelling Index’ recorded a fall of 15.4% from 104.3 points last month to 88.2 points, indicating that a majority of people surveyed believe the optimal time to purchase a home may have passed following the strong capital gains in home values over the last year and interest rate hikes.

The Reserve Bank’s Head of Financial Stability, Luci Ellis said at the Australian Financial Review’s Residential Property Conference this month, that housing prices had continued to receive upward pressure in Australia.

“It would be helpful if more of that demand could be accommodated with extra homes for occupation, instead of by higher prices,’’ she said. “Every cycle starts with something real, something fundamental. Recent data suggest that we do not have a credit-fuelled speculative boom on our hands. It would not be desirable for the current situation to turn into one.’’

While the Rpdata.com Market Activity Index has shown slight easing during recent times, the above average pre-listing activity level suggests that the listing environment should remain buoyant amongst real estate professionals over the coming month. Both the number of new properties entering the market and the total number of properties available for sale remain well above 12 month average levels despite falling below the level from the same time last year.

Story by Curtis Cooper REA

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What are "median" property prices?

Having an understanding of median sale prices can add an extra dimension to your property purchasing skills.

Take care not to confuse median sale prices and average sale prices, the two numbers can vary enormously.

Averaging adds up property prices in a list and divides by the number of properties. The median price is the figure in the middle of a range of numbers arranged from lowest to highest.

So, if you have  11 properties, the median price would be the price of the 6th property from lowest to highest. There will be five properties below it in value and five properties above it in value.

Median and average prices can be quite similar if the prices form an even range from high to low. However, if the list of  11 properties has  eight low priced and only  three  high priced properties, the median value will look low compared to the average value. Conversely, with three low priced and eight high price properties, the median value will be higher than the average value.

Median prices are usually quoted by suburb/area or by a time period.  Suburb figures are usually calculated on the previous 12 months. Areas with less than 10 sales during that time don’t give enough data to generate relevant figures.

Comparing different areas with similar median prices can help make better sense of what median prices are all about.

Capital city medians are a good guide for suburban house prices, however houses within five kilometres of the CBD will have a much higher value than the median price for that city.

While median prices can assist as broad indicators and allow comparisons between cities, looking at recent comparable property sales in specific areas will always give the clearest understanding of the market you are in.

The best understanding of property values will be a combination of both median pricing – a macro view – and individual property sales in your target area, giving a complementary micro view.

Story by Sally Howes Domain.com.au

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Interest rates and financial woes in Europe could cool overheated Oz property market

05-13 Property prices in Australia could start to fall as a result of interest rate cuts and a cut back in mortgage lending, it is claimed. Despite prices increasing by up to 20% in the last year, a six interest rate rises in the last eight months could put the brakes on and there is evidence of a slowdown, experts believe.

REAL estate experts are bracing for the housing market to finally slow down, as the effects of the latest interest rate rise filters through to buyers.

According to Australia’s largest real estate group Ray White, turnover in the first three months of the year is sluggish compared with last year, up only 8%, the smallest increase since the global financial crisis.

The reduced activity has continued in to April, said Brian White, joint chairman. ‘Judging by our April results, it looks as if the interest rate increases are having an impact on activity. With the additional interest rate hike, it would be the first time that the Australian market has not shrugged off the pattern of increases in the past. At last, it would appear that the ambition of the Reserve Bank to slow down the residential activity has been achieved,’ he explained.

Another outcome of soaring prices is an increased in those struggling to make mortgage payments. According to independent interest rate monitor RateCity about 27,000 households have already missed mortgage repayments and thousands more are expected to fall behind after the latest interest rate rise.

The number of securitised home loans more than 90 days in arrears has rapidly increased from 0.05% in January to a current rate of 0.6% it said.

The worsening financial crisis in Europe could also affect the Australian market. Some analysts even believe there might be a rate decrease later in the year, although most are predicting they are likely to remain on hold.

‘There will be a slower housing market in Sydney in the second half of this year, even with a normal economy,’ said SQM Research managing director Louis Christopher. But he added that if the euro zone woes worsen there would be the potential for quarter on quarter falls at the end of the year.

Residex chief executive John Edwards believes price growth will moderate and he forecasts 5 to 8% overall. The top end of the market would do best, while some cheaper areas of south western Sydney were already going backwards.

According to Australian Property Monitors economist Matthew Bell prices in the most expensive half of the property market would rise at twice the rate of the bottom half.

Story from PropertyWire.com

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