Posts Tagged Investment

Foretold: Leaders ignore housing affordability

Sep 3

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housing Like some carnival mystic, before the last election I wrote some predictions in an envelope and sealed it, with instructions only to open it after the election was over. Lo and behold, when I opened the envelope afterwards my prediction proved right: ”That neither party will do anything about making housing more affordable.”

They say that neither of the major parties can agree about anything, but they have certainly continued their conspiracy of silence about the ruinous price of housing in this country. Large parts of New South Wales and the rest of the country are desperately crying out for action on both reducing the price of housing and freeing up more land for residential development, but the reply during the election has been a deafening silence.
We’ve been distracted by a wide variety of carnival tricks, with politicians from both sides busy dancing around marginal electorates in NSW, Victoria, Queensland and elsewhere, but yet no action on one of the most pressing issues of our times.

Neither party is willing to touch the negative gearing issue, perhaps in fear of offending their backers in the business community (although New Zealand seems to have the courage to). The NSW state government still remains addicted to stamp duty. Wage increases in the past 10 years have come nowhere near close to matching the stratospheric rise in house prices. Houses in NSW are at least 10 times the average wage (which is in itself a ridiculous way of measuring affordability — that assumes that the average person on $60,000 has no expenses as they pay off their house, perhaps existing on thin air and hope. A more accurate figure would be 20 times the average wage, taking into account minimum expenses of $30,000.)

Relaxed Foreign Investment Review Board rules of home availability means that Australians are competing with the rest of the world for their local resource. The Liberal Party says it will ”reduce the debt”, but it neglects to say that our public debt is tiny compared to other countries — instead, the nation is hocked to the gills on private debt, partly credit card debt but mostly housing debt.

We’ve reached the point where people are actively praying for that long-awaited major collapse in the housing bubble so they can possibly afford a home, something akin to planning one’s retirement strategy on a win at lotto or a punt on the dogs. Sydney and Melbourne’s western suburbs, traditionally the working-class heartland of Labor, might have gone aspirational but they still want affordable homes, something state Labor seems unable to provide.

Meanwhile, the housing affordability time bomb ticks away — a growing population and a shortage of land promises a price explosion in the future, locking out yet another generation from home ownership. Soon we will reach a point where only the richest of Australians — and cashed-up investors from overseas — will be able to own a house. And with our banks finding it harder and harder to compete for capital overseas, money for home lending may become harder to obtain.

There are many models we could follow around the world — the German model for long-term renters signing a contract with their landlords, reducing housing speculation; or the Denmark model where tax benefits are given mainly to purchasers of residential property who intend to live in their home – but we refuse to do so, because they aren’t enough votes in it, and because it’s the sweetest racket for the rich apart from mining.

Perhaps millions of us will just have to settle on being renters in our own country. That is, until a leader or a political party comes along with the guts to do something about it.

Charles Purcell is a Fairfax writer. Story from the Sydney Morning herald

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How to lose the mortgage millstone

Sep 2

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mortgage-loans Here’s a challenge. How fast could you pay your mortgage off? The sad realisation hit me earlier in the year that I’m not likely to get rich anytime soon. I know – why did I even think that would happen?

The only path to financial freedom is going to be to make sacrifices – some pretty big ones – and slash the mortgage as soon as possible. Then compound interest and investing will be able to actually earn us money. The sooner the mortgage is gone, or at least significantly reduced (given the size of mortgages these days!), the more money we will have to enjoy life.

Yes, it can be a little boring trying to pay a slab off the mortgage. But once you owe a lot less you’ll be able to use that spare money to do things that you want, instead of feeding it to the bank all the time. If you’re in deposit saving mode, the tips below will also be helpful.

#1 Stop Spending. Sounds simple, but do you find yourself wondering where all your money went? Does it leak out of your wallet like a bucket with a hole in the bottom? We’ve tried budgeting before but it just seemed too complicated. After a couple of weeks we’d get bored and the whole thing would go out the window. So now we’ve just decided to stop spending on pretty much everything – except the essentials, and a couple of luxuries we just can’t live without.

#2 No new clothes. In fact no new anything. Terrifying for some, I know. But we’ve decided to put a ban on buying any new clothes for two years, and most other goods too. I already have enough threads to dress the people of a smallish nation so it really shouldn’t be too much of a challenge. It’s just the boredom factor, really. Second-hand op-shop bargains are allowed and it has become surprising to see what you can actually find, if you have the time to look. And given we’re not heading out to pubs and cafes anymore, we have to do something with our time.

We’ve got little kids so obviously they can’t wear the same clothes for two years, unless we put bricks on their heads. But we’ve made it known that we welcome all hand-me-downs, and have also made a habit of perusing the op shops and second kids’ clothing markets. It’s amazing how many near-new clothes you find for just a few dollars, or items that even have the tags still attached.

#3: Lose the pay TV. It’s a luxury that is costing you a pretty penny. With the growing number of channels on free to air, there’s a lot more choice for nix on the box these days. And if you do the sums, you’ll probably find that even hiring a few DVDs a month is a lot cheaper than pay-TV. If there is something you must watch – sport for example – try to arrange to see it at a friend’s house who has got pay TV. As a last resort head out to the pub to see it – but be careful your beer bill doesn’t cost you more than your monthly pay-TV would have!

#4: Join the library. Now that you’re not watching as much pay TV you might have more time to read books – and you can do it for free from your local library. Check out their DVDs and CDs too. If your library doesn’t have what you want you can ask them to bring it in from another public library. In many areas this is free. In others they’ll charge about $2 or $3 to do it. Recently my three-year-old wanted me to get him a Gruffalo audio book. Instead of buying it, we asked at the library, and they got it from another library for us. We had to wait about two weeks, but it provided some great anticipation for my son, and cost us nothing.

#5 Quit the gym. Go for a walk/run/ cycle/swim instead. Now we are coming into spring, there should be ample chance to get out and about and exercise without having to pay for it. If you need motivation, try to arrange with a friend to exercise with. Make a date for something active, such as tennis, swimming or walking.

#6: Ditch the car. Get a bike, or opt for two feet and a heartbeat. I don’t mean sell the car, I just mean avoid using it when possible. Of course if you have two cars and think you can survive with just one, it might be worth offloading your second. Otherwise keep your fuel costs down by jumping on a bike when you can or for very short trips, walk. We have a Christiana trike, which is great for carting the kids around and also for heading to the markets on a weekend. If you live in an area where there are organised car pooling groups, it might be worth checking them out as an alternative to owning your own car.

#7: Entertain at home. Going out can be pricey, especially if you are buying alcohol too. Entertaining at home can be just as much fun, and stress-free (and cheap) if you ask everyone to bring a little something to contribute. If you do head out for a meal, look for cheaper restaurants where you can BYO alcohol for a low corkage fee.

#8: Home brew is a go-go. Since my hubby started home brewing a year ago, I reckon we’ve saved a small fortune in beer. If you’ve got a green bent, it’s potentially better for the environment too, because you’re reusing the bottles and not paying for all that heavy ready-made beer to be shipped about. If you are a wine drinker, try to save money by buying wine in bulk.

#9: Holiday close to home. Look for cheap options, such as camping, staying in caravan parks, or house-sitting for friends and family. Try to get something with kitchen facilities where you can make most of your meals – eating out can be a significant cost of holidays.

#10: Grow a few vegies. It can be pretty simple to grow some herbs in the garden (or pots) and a few basics such as spinach, lettuce and tomatoes. Pottering about watering and weeding them can also be relaxing after a stressful day at work.

#11: Babysitting circle. If you’ve got young kids, considering swapping babysitting services with friends. We have a magnet system where we use magnets as payment. Each family starts with four magnets. We often babysit the kids in their own home, in the evening. So one parent stays at home with their own children, while the other minds the second family’s children. It works a treat. You can arrange for the circle to work with several families or you could have your own arrangements with a couple of different families, as we do.

#12: Limit your mobile phone calls. If you’re bursting out of your mobile phone plan each month it might be time to examine your habits. Can you limit your conversations or cut down your texting to save money? Or could you email or skype someone instead?

#13:  Pre-made is pre-paid. Go for fresh with food where you can. Don’t get caught out buying pre-made things such as soup. It’s pretty easy to chuck a few vegies in a saucepan along with some stock powder and boil it up. Pre-made sauces (the add meat and vegies variety) can also be an expensive choice that could be replaced with a few basics such as stock powder, cornflour and garlic. It’s always good to make sure you’ve got a few basics in the fridge or cupboard so you’re not tempted to get take-away – even if it’s as simple as tinned fish, a cheap packet of pasta and sauce, or baked beans on toast as a stopgap.

#14: Buy a water bottle – and use it. Buying bottled water is crazy when you can refill from a tap. And resisting soft drinks, juice and flavoured milk will also save you plenty of money over time. Drink some water and eat an orange instead. It’s a lot cheaper, and better for your waistline too.

#15: Pack your own. Whether it’s work or an outing, there’s no doubt that food brought from home is going to be cheaper than lunch on-the run. It can get a bit tedious at times, so allow yourself to go really wild on occasion and buy takeaway. Otherwise bring your own and watch your mortgage start to be whittled away.

Original story by Carolyn Boyd, a property journalist and keen follower of Australia’s housing market.

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Spring will see investors warm to real estate

Aug 30

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real-estate-investor WARMER weather will combine with other favourable conditions to fuel the appetites of potential property investors, according to Australia’s largest independently owned mortgage broker.

The latest Australian Bureau of Statistics housing finance report saw the value of investment housing loans drop for the first time in four months in June 2010 by a seasonally-adjusted 3.6 per cent to $7.3 billion, the lowest value reached since February this year.

However, this compared favourably to $6.5 billion in June last year.

Many market commentators say this buyer group had been holding back until the election was over and the traditionally strong spring selling season begins. They won’t have to wait much longer.

Mortgage Choice senior corporate affairs manager, Kristy Sheppard says that according to RP Data, Australia typically sees higher than average property activity from September through to November.

"This year should be no exception, despite a possible lag effect from the hung parliament," she said.

"There are already more properties on the market than usual at this time of year.

"That is good news for prospective investors, as is property prices plateauing in many areas and dropping in some; rental prices increasing; strong population growth continuing; consumer sentiment rising and the sharemarket continuing to be unpredictable.

"Housing undersupply is a serious issue in Australia and ABS building approval figures show a fall for a third consecutive month in June to reach the lowest level since August last year.

"Hence, many investors believe the long-term potential of property as a stable asset class is excellent.

"With fewer new properties there is bound to be a pick-up in rental price growth — we are seeing that happen already.

"Australian Property Monitors Rental Market Report for the June 2010 quarter shows that from April to June, rental prices for houses rose nationally by 0.7 per cent, bringing annual growth to a relatively small, but very encouraging, 3.1 per cent.

"The unit market was stronger, with rents increasing nationally during the last quarter by 3.5 per cent, bringing the annual growth rate to 4.2 per cent.

"This bodes well for people who research the property market thoroughly, have a long-term strategy in mind and investigate all their finance options so they make a sound investment decision.

"Prospective buyers must be aware that lenders have tightened loan assessment criteria for investors as well as owner occupiers.

"Many have limited their loan to value ratios to 90 per cent of the purchase price for both buyer groups, with some going even lower.

"Also, genuine savings are essential, whether in the form of a cash deposit or existing property equity.

"Both buyer groups will need to plan ahead to satisfy their chosen lender’s requirements.

"Preparing for rate movements is also vital to the planning process.

"The cash rate will probably remain stable for the next couple of months but many lenders are signalling that funding costs may force them to raise borrowing costs independently of the RBA’s rate cycle.

"It will be interesting to see how many Australian investors spring into the property market over the next quarter and what effect, if any, lender rate rises will have."

Source: www.goldcoast.com.au

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New risks threaten house price bubble

Aug 27

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housingprices Gerard Minack, a senior economist at Morgan Stanley, predicted two years ago that house prices were set to experience a dramatic 30 per cent fall by this year given rising unemployment.

”Australian houses are much more overvalued than US houses; indeed, on some measures, our houses are arguably the most expensive in the world,” Minack said.

”My very simple take on it – the bigger the bubble, the bigger the pop.”

But with no snap crackle or pop, and debate still raging whether there has been a bubble, Minack last week revised his script to envisaging the bubble deflating, not popping.

”Dodging the worst of the global financial crisis didn’t demonstrate that there’s no bubble. In my view it just showed we dodged the prick,” he said.

”I’m not persuaded by arguments that houses are sustainably priced. Most measures suggest house prices are around 40 per cent above fair value. However, the risk of big price declines in the near term seems low.”

Minack points out that much of the discussion about the residential market future overly concentrates on owner occupiers despite a jump in taxpayers reporting rental income jumping from 608,000 in the late 1980s to about 1,765,000 now.

He notes the percentage of landlords claiming a rental loss (that is, rent not covering interest and other costs) has risen from 50 per cent to 70 per cent over the past decade.

With broad-based job losses appearing unlikely, Minack now sees the more imminent risks to property price growth as the

banks tightening credit and negative-gearing landlords departing the market due to low capital appreciation.

Ignoring the fact that investment property for many is their nest egg in the absence of superannuation, Minack envisages property investors becoming disillusioned with the ensuing widespread disposal of their investments. ”This is an investment that depends on capital gain for its payback. With net income not even covering interest charges, this is a classic Hyman Minsky Ponzi scheme,” he says.

”The real return on residential property over the next decade is likely to be negative.”

Minack also took aim at the Reserve Bank deputy governor, Ric Battellino, who recently said that 75 per cent of household debt was held by the upper 40 per cent of income earners.

”It is simply wrong to assert that rental properties are largely owned by high-income households: losing on residential property investment is largely a middle-class affair,” Minack writes.

”Taxpayers who earn $80,000 or less own 80 per cent of all loss-making properties.”

His 10-year negative return timeline forecast is offered without explanation. But the prospect of a price plateau rather than a pop is a much more plausible position for Minack to now embrace. This is especially so for Sydney which recorded a slump and then negligible price growth for many years after the last investor-inspired boom that peaked in 2004.

Some further excessive froth in Sydney pricing that was evident by late 2007 and early 2008 was removed by the global financial crisis fall-back.

It wasn’t until late 2009 that Sydney’s median house value finally surpassed the $568,000 peak of early 2004, according to Australian Property Monitors. At its worst, during the global financial crisis, the median was 6.5 per cent off its earlier peak. It’s now at $625,000.

But Minack, who lives in Mosman, has only to sound out another economist, Stephen Koukoulas, to know that many neighbourhoods across Sydney are going nowhere fast.

Koukoulas, now based in London as the chief global markets strategist for TD Securities, sold out of Mosman earlier this year for $1,175,000. The Mosman house had traded at $1,285,000 in 2007.

Mosman’s pricing is problematic, but Minack’s abandonment of his bubble pop forecast is especially intriguing as Melbourne’s price juggernaut has put it in a more precarious position than Sydney.

Melbourne’s dwelling price growth over the past decade sits at 174 per cent compared with Sydney’s 83 per cent, according to Australian Property Monitors.

Over the past five years it has been 66 per cent in Melbourne and 17 per cent in Sydney.

The latest Housing Industry Association affordability survey for the June quarter suggested Melbourne could shortly rank alongside Sydney as the least affordable Australian cities.

The HIA chief economist Harley Dale noted affordability dropped year on year by 39.8 per cent in Melbourne and in Sydney by 33.5 per cent.

”If that trend were to persist then you would rapidly be approaching a situation where Melbourne is on a par with Sydney in terms of [least] affordability,” Mr Dale said.

Story by Jonathan Chancellor www.domain.com.au

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Pedlars of House Price Doom off the Mark

Aug 18

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Reserve Bank of Australia The level of household debt in Australia has risen over the past three decades from less than 50 per cent of household disposable income to about 150 per cent.

Ric Battellino, the Reserve Bank of Australia deputy governor, has sought to allay concerns that this indebtedness means we face a risky unsustainable outlook. He said that 75 per cent of household debt was held by the upper 40 per cent of income-earners.

The bank’s governor, Glenn Stevens, had earlier given the RBA’s estimate of Australia’s dwelling price-to-income ratio, which found that dwelling prices in capital cities were typically 4.8 times disposable household incomes – about half the ratio put by the doomsaying international survey Demographia.

The Commonwealth Bank chief executive, Ralph Norris, was asked after the bank announced a $6 billion profit last week whether the housing doomsayers were nuts.

”I wouldn’t go as far as to say they’re nuts but I think that it’s very easy to make assertions based on averages,” he said. ”You come to a different view when you look at the fact that the incomes based around averages are not relevant to the average person that has a mortgage.

”So you know, we’re in a situation here where, in my view, the housing market in Australia is healthy.

”There will obviously be variations in price and we shouldn’t be surprised if there are, you know, drops of 5 per cent or 10 per cent, as there are obviously increases in value.

”But I think the range of value is not going to be anything that suggests a bubble and a collapse of the housing market in Australia.”

Deutsche Bank issued a research paper last week suggesting Australia’s house prices were not as vulnerable as doomsayers argue.

While acknowledging that on many comparisons Australia had a high house price-to-income ratio and high levels of household debt, the Deutsche Bank economists Phil O’Donaghoe and Adam Boyton argued the vulnerability of Australian housing was ”overblown”.

”The housing market is perhaps the most common vulnerability we are asked about in the Australian economy,” the said.

”Combined with the role played by the US housing market in the financial crisis, investor awareness and suspicion of this key asset class is perhaps understandable.

”But we have long held the view that a broader assessment of the Australian housing market offers a more sanguine conclusion.”

The Deutsche Bank report noted that mortgage debt obligations in Australia were fully recourse loans and borrowers’ mortgage obligations extend beyond the mortgaged property, therefore providing a greater incentive for repayment relative to the United States.

Battellino suggests the strongest evidence on the sustainability of household debt was the low level of arrears. This was evident again this week in housing repossession data.

Repossession actions lodged in the NSW Supreme Court for the first six months of 2010 totalled 1198.

There were 3800 last year and 4000 during 2008. The peak year was 5300 in 2006.

Foreclosures in the US rose 4 per cent from June to July, exceeding 300,000 for the 17th month in a row, according to RealtyTrac.

The number of foreclosure activities, which incorporates all phases of foreclosure including default notices, scheduled auctions and bank repossessions, totalled 325,229 in July.

Lenders seized 92,858 properties last month, the second highest monthly total since RealtyTrac began tracking repossessions in 2005. Total foreclosure activities reached 1.65 million in the first six months of 2010.

Deutsche Bank noted that Australian house price concerns were ebbing. ”The pulse in housing finance has moderated in line with rises in the cash rate. The housing cycle points to a steady moderation in price pressures.

”Elements of the market which had been described by the RBA earlier this year as demonstrating elements of ‘considerable buoyancy’ have moderated. Auction clearance rates have also slowed.” From a peak of 72 per cent at the end of last year, auction clearance rates had fallen by last month to 61 per cent, Deutsche said.

Story by Jonathan Chancellor www.domain.com.au

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Units outperform houses

Aug 17

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 Units outperform Houses Historically, houses have enjoyed a much more rapid appreciation in value than the growth recorded by units. There are a number of reasons for this more rapid level of growth: greater demand for houses, diminishing availability of development land, higher quality of stock and design available for houses rather than units and the greater Australian dream to own a house rather than a unit, among a number of other reasons.

Despite these factors, over the last five years units have recorded average annual value growth of 7.4% compared to 7.1% for houses. However, the results suggest that the superior performance of units compared to houses is quite a new phenomenon as over the last 10 years the average annual value growth of houses (9.9%) has well and truly outperformed units (8.0%).

The improvement in the capital growth performance of units in recent times is most likely due to affordability issues. Based on current capital city median prices, unit prices are recorded at $420,000 compared to houses at $495,000. Accordingly, units offer a much more affordable alternative housing option than houses.

Many unit developments, particularly newer units, are also in strategic locations and are where a large proportion of the market aspires to live but cannot afford to buy a detached home. In many cases, apartments provide a viable and relatively affordable option to buy into these markets. A good example of this is Bellevue Hill in Sydney. Bellevue Hill is one of the country’s most expensive housing markets with a median house price of $3.85 million, unit prices in the suburb are recorded at $620,000, -84% more affordable than a house.

The inner city and well established residential areas enjoy high demand for units because in most instances they are: well catered to by local amenity including shops and restaurants, well located close to working nodes and are serviced by existing public transport amenity which is often not available in outer suburbs of the capital cities.

Over the 12 months to June 2010, unit values have increased by 11.4% compared to growth of 10.2% for houses. On a month-to-month basis, annual value growth for units has been outstripping that of houses fairly consistently since April 2008.

unit-outperform-1

Throughout the individual capital city markets, the growth in the value of units has outperformed houses within Sydney, Brisbane, Perth and Darwin over the last 12 months.

Throughout the capital city markets Hobart has the most affordable units with a median price of $254,250 and Sydney the most expensive with a median of $450,000.

When the differential between median house prices and unit prices is analysed you gain a greater insight into the performance of the market.

unit-outperform-2

Darwin has the greatest differential between house and unit prices at $142,176 and the smallest differential is recorded in Adelaide ($67,252). Sydney, Brisbane and Darwin each recorded a differential in median price of at least $90,000 and these three cities each recorded a greater level of annual value growth for units rather than houses over the last 12 months. Perth also recorded a superior performance for units over the last year however, the price differential in that city is $75,000.

Although the popularity of units is increasing, since the onset of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) many developers have found it much more difficult to obtain finance for higher density developments. This is due to the fact that the banks are becoming more risk adverse and the fact that a number of high profile higher density projects have either been cancelled or delayed. The latest building approvals data showed that over the year to June 2010 the number of approvals for private sector units has rebounded very strongly (57.7%) however, the monthly volume of approvals is still well below levels consistently recorded prior to the onset of the GFC, highlighting that finance for higher density product is difficult to obtain.

It’s undoubted that units have significant appeal for price sensitive purchasers due to the fact they can own in a popular location at a far lesser price compared with a detached home. For investors, units are appealing because in most instances the rental yields are much higher than they are for houses. Across the capital cities, the average gross rental yield for a unit is currently recorded at 4.8% and for houses yields are recorded at 4.0%. The superior rental return achieved by units can be attributed to the fact that units are typically located in areas that have high demand: close to major transport networks, employment nodes or retail centres.

Tim Lawless is the Director of Property Research at RP Data.

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One year adds $98,000 to house

Aug 11

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houses prices increase The extraordinary growth in house prices in Australia’s capital cities over the past year has resulted in the value of an average home in Melbourne rising by nearly $98,000.

In Sydney, the price increase for an average home peaked even higher, above $104,000.

House price figures for eight capital cities released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics yesterday show year-on-year growth from June 2009 of 24.3 per cent in Melbourne and 21.4 per cent in Sydney.

A 24.3 per cent rise above the median Melbourne house price of $403,000 for June 2009 equates to an annual increase of $97,929. Similarly, a 21.4 per cent rise above Sydney’s median 2009 June price of $490,000 equates to $104,860.

The figures provide welcome news for first home buyers, indicating the growth in property prices has peaked and is now declining.

Melbourne prices grew by 3.6 per cent over the June quarter compared with growth in the March quarter of 6.7 per cent.

Economists suggest property prices are likely to flatten, rather than decline significantly, and then remain stable.

”It’s still pretty incredible growth, given we have had six cash rate increases,” Nomura Australia economist Stephen Roberts said. ”That tends to rule out any relief from lower interest rates, too, for some time. The last thing this housing market needs is any stimulus from lower rates.”

Economist Saul Eslake from Melbourne’s Grattan Institute said the ABS figures confirmed data released last Friday that showed property prices declining in June. ”It’s consistent with all the other evidence of lower clearance rates and lower volumes,” he said. ”A lot of the heat that was in the market when interest rates were lower and when there was more government support in the form of grants has now dissipated.”

Overall, Australia’s house price growth slowed less than expected in the June quarter. Economists were predicting growth of 2 per cent but capital city house prices rose 3.1 per cent, following a revised 4.2 per cent rise in the March quarter, according to the ABS.

Economists suggest demand may continue to keep prices stable, with 200,000 new homes needed to house Australia’s growing population.

This comes despite dwelling approvals posting a surprise 3.3 per cent fall in June and the volume of new home sales also declining.

Brisbane recorded the slowest property growth rate with an 8.5 per cent increase. Canberra prices rose 19.6 per cent, Darwin 14.6 per cent, Adelaide 11.6 per cent and Hobart 10.8 per cent, the ABS data shows.

The combination of growth in house prices, a strong labour market, the push for wage increases and other inflationary factors was likely to add to the case for the Reserve Bank lifting interest rates towards the end of the year, Mr Roberts said.

House prices were also affecting other parts of the economy. Households forced to pay off large mortgages were ”scrimping and saving”, which was affecting other sectors such as retail sales, he said.

Story by Simon Johanson www.domain.com.au

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Last 12 months saw Oz property prices soar by almost 20%

Aug 9

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22-2 Residential property prices in major Australian cities have increased by almost 20% in the last 12 months, according to the latest figures to be released.  
The data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows average quarterly growth to June of 3.1% and an annual increase of 18.4%.

The data shows growth of almost double that of the private sector RP Data/Rismark index released last week which showed national city dwelling values up 10.5% in the same period.
In Melbourne house prices increased more than 24% in the last year while in Sydney they rose 21%, according to the ABC figures.

Canberra saw a 19.6% price increase, Darwin 14.6%, Perth 13%, Adelaide 11.l6%, Hobart 10.8% and Brisbane 8.5%.

The data reveals that the rate of growth in capital cities peaked at 5.5% in the December quarter last year, after rising from negative territory during the economic downturn, and is now steadily falling.

In the second quarter of the year prices increases slowed considerably. In Sydney they increased by 4.9%, by 3.6% in Melbourne and by 3.2% in Adelaide.  Darwin saw a 2.8% increase, Canberra was up 2.1%, Perth 0.4%, Brisbane 0.3% and Hobart 0.1%.

Last week’s RP Data index showed average house prices had fallen slightly after 17 months of consecutive gains, as economists agreed the market was at a turning point. In a note ANZ economists said while growth was expected to slow further this year, prices would be supported by the underlying housing shortage and a buoyant outlook for the Australian economy.

It comes as analysts warn that Australia is facing a housing crisis and that the national shortfall of 190,000 dwellings will widen to 466,000 by 2020, amid expectations of a rapidly growing population.

Developers claim that a shortage of land and a lengthy planning process is hampering construction. HIA chief economist Harvey Dale said it takes an average of seven to eight years for a greenfield site to reach completion, an unnecessarily long period that pushes up costs and reduces supply.

‘At the end of the day, the lack of adequate, affordable land supply is at the heart of the problem. The number of processes a development must go through is higher now than was the case 10 years ago. We are regressing rather than progressing in terms of the bureaucracy involved in building a new home,’ he said.

Story source www.propertywire.com

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Soaring house prices to be hit by slowdown

Aug 5

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house-and-money SYDNEY and Melbourne house prices have gone through the roof over the past year.

Adelaide and Darwin lead other capital cities in recording strong growth in the real estate market.

But analysts warn that the rate of growth is slowing rapidly across the nation and could flatline by year’s end.

Preliminary estimates from the Australian Bureau of Statistics show the average price of established housing in the eight capital cities rose an average 3.1 per cent in the March quarter.

Sydney and Melbourne led the way with sharp rises of 4.9 per cent and 3.6 per cent respectively. It was the fifth consecutive rise in the eight capital cities index.

For the full year to June, overall average house prices rose 18.4 per cent, and the ABS said the average price rise of 21.4 per cent in Sydney was the largest rise since it began recording these figures in 2002.

Adelaide and Darwin recorded quarterly growth rates of 3.2 per cent and 2.8 per cent respectively, Perth 0.4 per cent and Brisbane just 0.3 per cent.

But the data also revealed the rate of growth in capital cities peaked at 5.5 per cent in the December quarter last year, after rising from negative territory during the economic downturn, and was now steadily falling.

Senior Westpac economist Matthew Hassan said a clear pattern of moderation across all measures had emerged over the past six months. "There are clearer and clearer signs that price momentum has softened quite significantly over the first half of this year," Mr Hassan said. "The auction clearance rates tell it; the finance approvals tell it; the sentiment is pretty clear as well."

He said the incremental impact of interest rates returning to normal levels had squeezed affordability and slowed demand as the market tilted in favour of buyers.

"It doesn’t necessarily mean we’re rushing headlong into price declines," he said. "I think with rates still around neutral and clearly quite a lot of pent-up demand for housing in many markets, . . . you’ve got a pretty good case for a soft landing."

But RP Data national research director Tim Lawless was less optimistic, pointing out the ABS data had not picked up a deterioration in June.

The RP Data-Rismark home index shows home values fell 0.7 per cent in June. Mr Lawless said that was accompanied by clearance rates of 55 to 60 per cent, down from 70 per cent rates late last year. Housing finance approvals also remained low.

"The next six months is likely to see flat market conditions at best, perhaps further month to month modest declines," he said.

Story by Nicolas Perpitch The Australian

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Inflation gauge falls 0.1% in July, Manufacturing sector grows: Economy roundup

Aug 2

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images A private gauge of Australian inflation slowed during July, adding more weight to suggestions the Reserve Bank will keep the official interest rate at 4.5% at tomorrow’s meeting.

The TD Securities-Melbourne Institute revealed today its consumer price inflation gauge rose 0.1% in July, down from June when it rose by just 0.3%. The annual pace of inflation slowed to 2.8%, within the RBA’s 2-3% target band.

The data comes after official figures revealed a slowdown in annual underlying inflation to 2.7%.

"The soft CPI report allows the RBA to remain on hold for several months as mortgage lending rates have already been restored to average levels," Annette Beacher, a senior strategist at TD Securities, said in a statement.

The inflation gauge reveals utilities, health services and alcohol and tobacco prices all rose, but they were offset by declines in food, holiday travel and petrol, which actually dropped by 2%.

Meanwhile, Australian manufacturing activity increased in July with new orders and output both expanding, although employment has declined.

The Australian Industry Group-PriceWaterhouseCoopers performance of manufacturing index rose by 1.5 points to 54.4 during July, above the 50-point level separating expansion from contraction.

Story by Patrick Stafford www.smartcompany.com.au

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